In this episode, we continue to explore the hot topic of what the workplace will look like in the coming months and years.

Many business leaders are making decisions based on their past experiences, their individual leadership styles, and their beliefs about what the world of work SHOULD look like. In other words, they’re “following their gut.”

But in doing so, it seems to me that they risk making decisions based on outdated paradigms, personal biases, and the fear of change.

Mike and Agnes discuss the impact of behavioral economics on business leaders’ decision making, how our brains are not designed for modern planning scenarios, and how to overcome our penchant for short-term thinking.


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Agnes Vishnevkin

Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA, has over 15 years of helping leaders achieve their top priorities through successful decision making and risk management. She serves as the co-founder of Disaster Avoidance Experts, a future-proofing consultancy that helps forward-looking leaders avoid dangerous threats and missed opportunities.


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Agnes Vishnevkin: Speaking of things that affect us that did not affect our ancestors in the Savanna, it has a fancy name. It’s called hyperbolic discounting. Basically, it means that I think that the present is much more important than the future.

So, I’m going to have that donut now and I’m not going to worry that I’m maybe going to gain weight if I keep having a donut every single day or that I’m going to go to the doctor and the doctor is going to be like, “Oh, Agnes, your cholesterol is not good. You need medication.” And then I’ll have that anxiety come back because the donut right now, it just looks so good. It smells so good. It’s loaded with amazing sugar. And what’s better than a donut? I don’t know. Maybe if you’re a salty person, then maybe a piece of sushi or something but I just think that what’s now is much more important.

[intro music]

Mike Coffey: Good Morning, HR. I’m Mike Coffey and this is the podcast where I talk to business leaders about bringing people together to create value for shareholders, customers and the community.

Please follow, rate and review Good Morning, HR on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also find us on Facebook, YouTube or at

In this podcast, we continue to explore the hot topic of what the workplace will look like in the coming months and years. Many business leaders I’ve talked to are making decisions based on their past experiences, their individual leadership styles and their beliefs about what the world should look like. In other words, they’re following their gut but in doing so, it seems to me that they risk making decisions based on outdated paradigms, personal biases and maybe the fear of change.

My guest today is Agnes Vishnevkin, the chief operating officer of the Disaster Avoidance Experts, a consulting firm that uses cutting edge behavioral economics research to help corporate clients address potential threats, seize unexpected opportunities and resolve persistent people problems.

Thanks for joining me today, Agnes.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Thank you so much for having me, Mike.

Mike Coffey: There’s so much that I want to talk to you about. I love this combination of using behavioral economics to think about how we design work and how we lead our businesses. So, let’s start with just the dummies version of behavioral economics. What are we talking about when you’re talking about behavioral economics?

Agnes Vishnevkin: We’re talking about how psychology and our behavior impacts our decisions in the business world. So, economics is the business world, however, there’s a lot of psychology in there. And one of the inspirations for my work and for my business is the work of a Nobel laureate, Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize back in 1978 for his work in economics.

And there was a lot of psychology there that talked about all the surprising and unexpected ways about the way we think, our brains and make decisions that are really irrational. And it goes back to where are we come from and humans did not evolve for the modern world. We did not evolve to live in the world with podcasts and smartphones and cars. We did not evolve for that. Humans evolved in the Savanna back in Africa, hundreds of thousands of years ago.

And back there, we didn’t have all this stuff. Life was very simple. You run away from the tiger or you get eaten by the tiger. And life was very dangerous because if you see a shadow, you think it might be a tiger. You don’t run away. It’s like a life and death thing.

So, we evolved and that’s why there’s so much anxiety in our world today such as anxiety disorders. I have one and a third of the people have one because there are notifications on our phone, terrible news coming at us from TV and from radio. And our brain is wired to really just go on alert anytime there’s a shadow of a threat because if we didn’t do that, we wouldn’t have survived. Our ancestors survived and that’s why we here today. However, we are just so ill adapted for today’s world. And so, behavioral economics is about using our brain that evolved for the Savanna, for today’s world in the 21st century.

Mike Coffey: So, when we talk about fight or flight responses, those are hard wired into us but are those our only responses to potentially threatening circumstances? Are there more objective ways of determining how we respond to a threat?

Agnes Vishnevkin: They are better ways that we can learn and practice but automatically, you know what we are wired to do, what we’ve evolved to do is just fight or flight. And there’s also freeze. So, fight, flight or freeze, kind of like a deer in headlights. “I don’t know what to do.” That happens to me a lot. I’ve heard some people describe that as kind of like flight within yourself, like internal flight. I call it freeze.

So, we can learn to be different but we have to work at it. It’s not automatic. And it doesn’t make sense to just work on it for every decision. If my decision like what kind of donut I want to have… Whatever, don’t waste the resources. It’s very resource intensive to do this work. And the way to decide whether it’s worth it is to think about, “Is this the situation that my ancestors may have faced back in the Savanna?” Would they have needed to make a strategic plan to return to the office after global pandemic? No. There was no workplace. So, we’re not evolved to make longterm plans. We’re not evolved to think for the longterm. So, that’s how you know when you need to put in that work to really focus and to overcome, to go against our gut.

Mike Coffey: So, when we’re making… I guess we all make decisions with imperfect knowledge, right?

Agnes Vishnevkin: Absolutely.

Mike Coffey: We can’t know everything and I’d argue that bias towards action is always preferable to just sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what’s going to happen. Especially as a business leader, especially when there are people looking to you as a leader to do something, to make something happen, to protect them, to move an organization forward and to keep things healthy in our business ecosystem. So, I’ve seen where leaders biases, whether they recognize them or not, mislead them and evaluating whatever data is available. What are some things leaders can do to better understand the current environment and predict what it might look like into the future?

Agnes Vishnevkin: Yeah. That’s a great question. And I think that it’s important to consider all aspects of a decision, including aspects of a decision, of a situation or of a context that I might not like. For example, the pandemic is happening and I’m just very, very afraid to go anywhere. I don’t want to get COVID. But really, how dangerous is it to meet my friend outside to sit on her porch? It’s not dangerous. So, I need to override my feelings and I need to really look at the data. The data will say, “It’s fine. The risk is incredibly low outside.” On the other hand, there are folks right now making back to work, work plans and we’re doing a lot of talks and consulting right now with companies, talking about back to the office plans because people think, “Okay. The pandemic is over. We have vaccines. Excellent.”

I would like to believe that. I want the pandemic to be over. I got my vaccine and I’d like to think that everyone rushed the Walgreens and everything, CVS and whatever they got and got all the vaccines and everything they can get. But in reality, when we look at the data, so many people are not vaccinated yet for whatever reason. And even depending on different states and cities, vaccination rates vary. Also, there are many different variants coming out. There’s Delta variant and we’re just beginning with the Greek alphabet. There’s a lot more down there. We don’t know to what extent are some variants that are going to be more transmissive, even though we have vaccines.

We might need to develop new vaccines. Things might happen. Kids are back in school. Mask policies vary. So, if I just say, “I’m done with the pandemic. Everyone, come back to the office, 9-5, Monday through Friday. I’m over it.” A month from now, am I going to have to change that and do a yo-yo effect for everyone? It’s important to look at things that I don’t want to see because it’s uncomfortable. Who wants to do uncomfortable things? Who wants to do that? It’s uncomfortable for a reason. So, it’s very, very important to look at all sides of the story. Now, maybe ask someone who you trust for an outside opinion. So, those are just a few things that we can do to make sure that our decisions are prepared for the longterm.

Mike Coffey: So, try to collect as much information from other angles outside of our own experience to look at something and then think about what the consequences, how in different variables that change into the future, how this decision I’m making now may need to be changed or be effected by what happens in three, six, nine months or years, even down the road.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Exactly. And you want to be prepared. You want to have a flexible plan. And again, you want to look at all the information that might be uncomfortable and upsetting. So, that’s just very important. I want to go with my gut and only read half of the news that’s there because the other half of the news I disagree with. But even if I disagree with it, if it comes from a worthwhile source and it’s good evidence and good research, it’s very important to look at it as a leader. We really have to bite the bullet and do what’s uncomfortable to take our stakeholders and our employees in the right direction for the long-term.

Mike Coffey: What kind of tools are there? I don’t think many of us, even a lot of really good leaders that I’ve worked with over the years. I think when we get into those areas that are really outside of our comfort zones, and some of us have very broad comfort zones. I would argue that I’ve got a very broad comfort zone. I feel pretty competent to deal with most things that come my way but there are things outside of that and things that make me uncomfortable at some point.

What are some tools that a leader can utilize in order to be more comfortable to recognize this is an area that either, I don’t have a competency or this is an area of thought that would lead to something that I don’t want to happen, so I just want to avoid even going down that path. What are some tools I could use to be more comfortable or to be objective in at least facing and considering that information?

Agnes Vishnevkin: That’s a great question. And when you say you want to avoid going down the wrong path. So, that’s the name of my consulting company. It’s Disaster Avoidance Experts. So, that’s what we kind of want to do. And we looked through all of the research as it comes out, the recent behavioral economics research, and put together a variety of decision-making tools. And so, I’m going to share with you the shortest tools that we have. It’s something I keep on my desk. So, it’s a little card. It’s the size of a business card. It’s folded into a tent card. Actually, on the other side is my business card. And folks can get these. It’s like a couple of dollars on our website at But the best thing about it is that it shares the five tips from avoiding disastrous decisions.

And so, here are these five tips that are very easy. And this is just for a quick decision and this is to give you a flavor of the kind of tools that we’ve put together that leaders like yourself and others can use. And so, what are the five questions that you ask yourself?

The first one is, “What important information have I not yet fully considered?” So, in the example of bringing people back from remote work. What have I not yet considered? So, this is maybe some uncomfortable information. Maybe I haven’t done a survey of my employees to see what they want. Maybe I want to go back to the office. Maybe I miss being around people but it’s amazing that only about half the employers that we work with have even surveyed their staff. They never know. Maybe people hate to be back in the office or most of them do. And actually, surveys say that only about 10 to 15% of people overall want to come back 9-5 to the office. So, what important information did they not yet fully consider is number one.

Number two is, what dangerous cognitive biases might I be falling for? So, for example, the planning fallacy. Everything goes as planned but it doesn’t. If I have to be somewhere in 10 minutes, I shouldn’t leave the house 10 minutes before I need to be there because let’s be honest the chances of even me forgetting my keys and having to go back up to traffic or something like that. So, what are the judgment errors that I haven’t considered?

Number three is, what would a trusted and objective advisor say? And we just touched on that. So, if Mike is my old colleague and a great friend and always has good advice, I should just call him up or text him or whatever. Send him an email. What do you think? And if there’s not enough time or it’s in the middle of the night, just close your eyes and imagine what Mike would say. Oh my gosh. He would tell me this is a terrible idea. We can get a lot of the benefit without even calling.

Mike Coffey: I don’t recommend anybody using me as the guide for what would Mike say. It would probably be inappropriate and not necessarily helpful. So, don’t use. Me find somebody you really trust. But okay, go ahead. Sorry.

Agnes Vishnevkin: That’s funny.

So, number four is, how have I addressed all the ways that this could fail? That’s something we often don’t do because we do a post-mortem. We’re like, “Well, this failed. Let’s have a meeting and a plan and a report of all the ways this went wrong.” No, don’t do that. I mean, do that, but what’s better is to do a pre-mortem. Before you do it, say, “What are all the ways that it could go wrong? Everybody write three things down privately and then submit them.” And if I said, “Because my supervisor doesn’t know what she’s doing,” it was anonymous. And then we can go at all these things that maybe some of them are not very kosher or good to say in a public company. But that is a very, very reliable way to avoid a disaster. Just take a little bit of time to plan in advance and to really visualize what can go wrong. And then a lot of times, you can prevent it in advance. How great would that be.

Mike Coffey: Yeah, that’s really interesting because I’ve been through a lot of planning processes where the facilitator in a strategy planning session has this look a year forward and say, “If you reach all of your goals for the year, what will you have accomplished in order to get there?”

But I like that idea of saying, “What if you horribly miss your goal at the end of this year? what would have taken you away from that?” And one of the worst-case scenarios in this situation and what was the path to each of those? What would that have looked like? I think that’s a great, great tool. That’s very interesting.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Yeah. That’s exactly it. If all my wildest dreams come true, what do I need to do? If all my wildest nightmares come true, why? When you write those things down and then you pick the top things and you just make sure that they don’t happen. It’s exactly like the mirror image of like what you just described, exactly. And so, the last one is, what would cause you to revisit this decision? And we can go back to some of these but this is really good for people who have analysis paralysis or teams. It’s like, “Oh, I don’t know. This is too scary. I just can’t decide.” Well, then you’ll never decide or there’s just so much uncertainty. So, then you just agree with your team. Or just on your own, you decide, “At what point would I change my mind?”

And we do this often with hiring in the HR world. Someone might get 90 days probation. So, maybe certain benefits don’t set in or maybe you need a different cause for letting someone go within the first 30 to 90 days or something like that. So, we already do that. And here, the idea is to do that for other decisions, such as, “Oh, I want to sign up for this gym,” or something like that. “But I’m not sure. It’s too far.” Well, if I’m sick of the drive, I will just forfeit the rest of my fee. And I’ve decided that in advance. Then, okay. Just make the decision and wait three months, for example.

Mike Coffey: It’s interesting. So, you’re making a shorter term investment that helps you build a commitment to stick with whatever change for a period of time, so you can actually accurately gauge where that’s working.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Yeah and that avoids the uncertainty of, “Oh, I’m always not sure. Am I making the right decision?” Just like anxiety. Who wants anxiety? Nobody wants anxiety. We have it. So, we just want less. So, exactly. So, just decide in advance and then leave it alone.

Mike Coffey: And let’s take a quick break.

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And now back to my conversation with Agnes Vishnevkin.

I really love that you’re an expert in behavioral economics and you admit that you have the very anxieties that behavioral economics is designed to help alleviate. And so, that’s good. Sometimes it’s a physician heal thyself, right? We all know that… At least you’re open to the idea that, you get it, but there are certain things that are just probably outside of your control and you just have to try to modify your behavior as you go along. I think that a lot of leaders can benefit from that.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Yeah. And I think we’re all human. Our brains are wired in a similar way and it really helps me a lot with my decision-making, coaching clients with the folks I work with and in my personal life. It really just helps me learn a lot faster when I know that I’m just not built for this world and that’s why we just have every day anxieties. And if you have strong anxiety, you go to a therapist and they will tell you some of the same things as well. So, I just find that it really helps me. I feel very fortunate to be in this area just because of how many benefits I gain, selfishly for myself.

Mike Coffey: There are so many things that are outside of our control. And so many leaders focus and get mired in worrying about all those details that are outside of their control. And people do, such as professionals. I’ve got friends who are so obsessed with what this person is going to do or what this person’s going to do or what might happen in this area, the stock market. All of those things, where 99% of the stimulus that drives our world are really outside of our control. And I’m constantly telling leaders and friends, anybody who’ll listen to me, that small one or 2% of all the stuff that’s in your life that you actually have control over, that’s a giant lever to moving your world. But you’ve got to focus all your effort on what you can actually do and you can actually control and not worry about all the things that are outside of your control. Am I right when I’m talking to people like that or am I missing something there?

Agnes Vishnevkin: I love it. I love it. I think you’re exactly right because there’s so much outside of our control. It’s like we just can’t deal with it. And it’s one thing if I say, “Oh, just stop worrying about it.” That’s probably not going to work. A person’s going to worry about it because it’s very hard not to but we can work to focus and to reduce that worry. It’s only natural to worry about other things. For example, I might worry. I live in Ohio, so I feel very blessed that I do not have hurricanes or earthquakes. We don’t have too many natural disasters over here. But for example, I was thinking, “Well, what if there’s a natural disaster or some kind of disaster? What would happen?”

Then I realized that I live half a mile from a railroad track where there’s coal, chemicals and all sorts of stuff. So, if there’s an accident, I am like four blocks away and what would happen if there’s a chemical accident? And then of course. I started worrying and then I’m like, “Okay. I need to do something about it.” So, I looked up the best emergency preparedness. How to put together a bug out bag and how to be prepared to leave the house. In our case, if there’s a chemical accident, I’ll probably have to stay in the house. So, I bought some plastic sheeting and I got duct tape that I can tape around the doors to the basement. I have lots of canned food and water. So, if something happens, now I feel like, yes, it’s outside of my control if there’s some freak chemical accident.

It might not even happen during the time I live in this house or in this neighborhood. But I’m prepared so I can have less worry and I know exactly what I would do. So, that just kind of goes to so many other areas of our life. We can take steps to prepare. And then one thing is that it’s kind of like, “Well, like what is Agnes doing? Why is she spending time and money preparing for this thing that’s probably never going to happen? Come on.” But then we can also use this approach. You can think like, “If there’s an accident. If something happens and this railroad goes off the tracks with some kind of toxic cargo.” And what might happen? I might have to stay in my basement for weeks or would there be no running water. Some kind of disaster would happen or folks will live in earthquake prone zones.

So, what would be the loss? And you can put a number on it. The financial loss, if I’m not prepared. And so, say you calculate for some kind of disaster. Maybe $20,000 would be the loss. And what’s the probability of some kind of disaster? Disaster Du Jour, maybe that you’re vulnerable with. Say it’s 1%. So, then you take 1% of 20,000 and I’m not very good at math. How much is that? 200? $2,000? No. I should have picked an easy example.

Someone can do the math and you basically see that is the appropriate number to spend on a disaster. If it’s a hundred dollar disaster with a 1% chance of happening, it’s okay to spend a dollar. Don’t spend more. But if it’s a larger disaster, then it’s reasonable to spend that amount to prepare for that eventuality. And now, I’ve given up myself as someone whose bad at math but you can have a calculator and you can figure it out and permit yourself to spend whether it’s hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands of dollars to prepare and do what’s under-

Mike Coffey: And that gives you the freedom, once you feel like you’ve done what you can to prepare for those circumstances that are causing you some anxiety to remove that energy from that anxiety and direct it to something else that’s more valuable to you or maybe helps move you forward in your life in a more healthy way than just worrying about things that are outside of your control.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Absolutely. And that is a vehicle to remove your anxiety too. And I have experienced that in different areas of my life to prepare for things. Once I did the thing and then if I get worried or anxious, I’m like, “Okay, well. If this happens, I’ll do this thing.”

Mike Coffey: So, you’ve consulted with organizations of all sizes and leaders in all kinds of industries. What are the biggest blind spots you see when you’re working with leaders? What are the blind spots about their own organizations or maybe about their own leadership or whatever it is. Do you see any trends that are common to even successful leaders, as far as blind spots that they don’t recognize until somebody helps them?

Agnes Vishnevkin: Yeah. I could go on here for hours, of course. I have many favorites and they happen. We’re just vulnerable to such a variety of thinking errors or the way we’re wired for the fight, flight or freeze. And speaking of things that affect us that did not affect our ancestors in the Savanna, it has a fancy name. It’s called hyperbolic discounting. Speaking of things that affect us that did not affect our ancestors in the Savanna, it has a fancy name. It’s called hyperbolic discounting.

Basically, it means that I think that the present is much more important than the future. So, I’m going to have that donut now and I’m not going to worry that I’m maybe going to gain weight if I keep having a donut every single day or that I’m going to go to the doctor and the doctor is going to be like, “Oh, Agnes, your cholesterol is not good. You need medication.” And then I’ll have that anxiety come back because the donut right now, it just looks so good. It smells so good. It’s loaded with amazing sugar. And what’s better than a donut? I don’t know. Maybe if you’re a salty person, then maybe a piece of sushi or something but I just think that what’s now is much more important.

And we want to be comfortable instead of thinking what’s going to be in the longterm? So, for example, going back to the office to stick with my example. Let’s come back to the office and it’s easy. But then I didn’t think through what the long-term impact will be. If I did not make those sacrifices to think for the long-term then it’s kind of like I’m devaluing it. It’s like, “Oh, long-term doesn’t matter right now. I want to come back to the office.” But in the long-term, if people have to go back home and I’m not prepared, I need another work from home plan.

Maybe instead I should just keep people working from home, if they can of course, or some kind of a hybrid office. So, it’s easier for people to go back home or something like that. And of course, a classic example of this is investments. Why do people not save enough for retirement? I’d rather spend the money now then save it for later because my retirement is just so far away. “I’ll never get old. I’ll work forever.” It’s just not true. The future is very important but it just feels very distant. So, we discount the importance of the future and that can really come back to hurt us in many ways, unfortunately.

Mike Coffey: Yeah. David Maister in his book, Strategy and the Fat Smoker talks about why so many companies’ strategies fail because he says, “We set these goals for the future that look great but all the rewards are in the future. All the benefits are in the future and all the pain and hard decision and hard work is right now. And that makes it hard for us as an organization to commit to really make the changes we have to make in order to get where we want to go.” And so, we ended up putting a lot of our great ideas and admirable goals on the shelf because we don’t want to do that work right now. And I think that’s what you’re saying too.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Yeah. You’re exactly right.

Mike Coffey: We just have a tendency to avoid the pain.

Agnes Vishnevkin: You’re exactly right.

Mike Coffey: I have one last question for you. It may be sort of a French goodbye but when you put on your prediction hat for me for just a minute, what do you think are the two or three biggest changes that are coming to workplaces that most leaders don’t see yet?

Agnes Vishnevkin: Changes that most leaders don’t see. Lets see.

Mike Coffey: You have anything predictive or are you too smart to make predictions?

Agnes Vishnevkin: I’m not sure but I might need a moment. Lets see. I think one of the things that is coming that some leaders, not many leaders, but definitely some leaders are already being caught unaware is the reluctance of people to go back to the office, 9-5 or even at all. And we’ve seen this happen in the past months. Corporate giants like Amazon, Apple and even Google had to say, “Everyone, come back to the office.” And then a few weeks later they said, “Okay, nevermind. You can work from home. Have the time,” if it’s possible, of course, for you to work from home for the folks who were remote. People did move away out of state and people did kind of say, “Oh, I don’t have to commute. This is stupid. I don’t have to do it and you can’t make me. If you make me, I’ll just go find another job.”

So, I think some people are really underestimating that and I would say that at the same time, the workforce is being so remote. Just how many workers can be hired from all over the world? If someone’s doing a job remotely… For example, folks from countries who have a higher education but work in their country with a different cost of living, I wonder if more companies will go to those countries and go to the online marketplaces like Upwork to hire their staff or to hire their teams. And so, for the employees who are working from home and who are working remotely, how do you stay relevant and make sure that your job is not outsourced in a way? So, that is one thing that I would say and those are the two things that I have. I don’t have three things.

Mike Coffey: No. I think that’s great. I think that’s great. And that’s advice that I’ve given to a lot of HR professionals but also folks in accounting and other white collar professions who thought their jobs would be safe forever, is that with technology and a worldwide marketplace for labor, there’s a lot of what you think is your daily work is transactional and that can be outsourced to a computer or to someone else or someplace else in the world a lot cheaper. And a business for purely transactional work would be in many cases, dumb not to consider outsourcing it to a place where they can get the same quality for less.

And so, what we need as professionals to be doing all the time is thinking about unique ways that we can add value and to whoever it is that we’re working for. And maybe we have 15 bosses because we become a consultant or a gig worker. And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that as long as it’s fulfilling where you want to be personally and professionally in your life. And I can’t wait to have you back on the show because there’s so much to un-peel here still, but that’s all the time we have today. So, thank you for joining me today, Agnes.

Agnes Vishnevkin: Thank you so much for having me. I really enjoyed this conversation would love to get back to it.

And for anyone who is interested in learning more and getting some of these resources, we have a free online course that you can sign up for. It’s at www. It’s completely free. It’s not like, “Here, it’s free,” and then you have to pay $500 for the course. It’s eight free emails. You have videos. You have content and then ongoing information, so you can learn firsthand about these strategies and tips.

So, hope to see you over there. Thanks for having me.

Mike Coffey: There you go. We’ll include that in the show notes as well because that’s great.

Mike Coffey: And thank you for listening.

You can find previous episodes, show notes and contact info for our guests at or on Facebook, Instagram or YouTube. And don’t forget to follow us wherever you get your podcasts.

Rob Upchurch is our technical producer and Imperative’s marketing coordinator, Katy Bautista keeps the trains running on time and I’m Mike Coffey. As always, don’t hesitate to reach out if I can be of service to you personally or professionally.

I’ll see you next week and until then, do good, be well and share with others. We’ll talk soon. Have a great weekend.